The Wuhan Coronavirus - An Ominous Future

What will be Covid-19's effect on us all? At the moment, the mainstream media here in the West is definitely not being truthful about the dangers of the virus, or what it will do to the people of Earth. Instead, our Western media is trying very hard to make it look as if everything is business as normal and that there's nothing to worry about. There are several possible reasons for this, as I mentioned in my previous post. Whichever they are, not everyone has been taken in by our media's charade. Here is a lengthy comment from a youtube user called Jeff, who is talking about this YouTube video on the outbreak in China, and the dilemma China faces of whether or not to send its workers back to offices and factories:

I'm a former analyst/broker with Merrill Lynch. Let me break down the hard truth for you...

China is OVER. DONE. DO NOT PASS GO, DO NOT COLLECT $200. They will most likely not return to anything resembling normal output until at least the 2nd quarter of NEXT YEAR. Why? Glad you asked. On Jan. 24th, there were 483 recorded cases of COVID-19 in the entire world. Now, less than a month later, there are over 75,000, with 2,000+ deaths. IN LESS THAN ONE MONTH. The only reason the "New Case" number is declining is because they have locked down 760,000,000 people. The majority of cases and deaths are out of Hubei province, 61,682 as of this writing. The province with the next highest number of cases is Guangdong, with 1,331 current cases. That disparity is only because China has effectively implemented martial law, allowing no private cars on the road in Hubei, and allowing only one person per household to go out for supplies and food every three days.

China now has two very, very, very VERY bad options; 1) Keep their entire population locked down until there are no new reported cases, or 2) release everyone and let the virus run its course. So, if they keep everyone locked down, China completely shuts down for an indefinite amount of time. And I mean at least 6-9 months. Or, they let everyone loose, in which case - because this disease has a 20% SCR rate (serious complication rate - meaning 20 percent who get it require hospitalisation) - ALL of China's hospitals will be overwhelmed with patients and those who would have normally survived with care will die. In China's case that means tens of millions of dead people. In which case, China shuts down indefinitely. In other words, China is F&$%ed!!! And I mean royally. THERE IS NO WAY OUT OF THIS FOR THEM!!! Get this through your heads! Effectively, China has been invaded and conquered by its own doing!!

And now we have both Japan and South Korea both with cases numbers starting an exponential rise. This disease has a 6.5 to 7.5 day case doubling rate. In a month and half, Japan will be SHUT DOWN. South Korea will be SHUT DOWN. Those countries, along with China, are the three largest exporters in Asia, and they are about to come to a screeching halt! This bug, this Black Swan, is going to plunge the world into a Great Depression. You heard it here first.

Jeff - ex-Merrill broker/analyst, Geopolitical Strategist.

I can't fault Jeff's analysis. He may even be underplaying the problems. The numbers of infected people in South Korea and Japan has exploded in recent days, doubling almost every day. Covid-19 is likely to bring Asian manufacturing to a grinding halt in the very near future. If we combine this shutdown with the West's excessive reliance on Asian manufacturing, as well as the massive amounts of debts endemic to the global economy, particularly in Europe and North America, then we have all the ingredients for a massive economic crash. This will mean that in six months time, our planet will be racked not only with a global plague but economic chaos as well.

A relentless spread

History tells us that an economic crash often leads to right-wing regimes, martial law, xenophobia and armed conflict. If we add a terrible plague to the mix, then the likelihood of this happening becomes much greater.

I think it is likely that such a global upheaval will come into being over the next six months. The United States is likely to already be suffering a silent spread of the disease. It's worth noting that literally hundreds of thousands of Chinese students attend US universities. What's more, the CDC recently admitted that a number of the testing kits they sent out are actually faulty. If we combine this with the large number of people entering the country from other Asian countries, then it seems inevitable that the disease will spread through the States in the coming months. The timeline I created roughly a fortnight ago, as an indicator of how Covid-19 spreads, is I think still a good indicator. As it shows, as deaths mount, panic buying will break out. Hospitals will fill up with sick people. Medics will have to turn people away. This is likely to trigger beatings of staff (already reported in China) by disgruntled families of sick people. The large numbers of guns in the United States will only make these encounters worse.

Here in the UK, so far, we seem to have got off lightly, so far, from the coronavirus. We will be very lucky if it stays this way. Italy has just suffered a serious outbreak. We are also in half-term holiday. On Monday, children will be returning to school and parents will be going back to work, often after travelling abroad. It is therefore likely that we will get new clusters of infections. These will spread, just like they have in South Korea, Japan and Singapore. I would love it if it didn't happen, but I'm basing this prediction on science and probability, not hope.

Martial Law

As the virus overruns our population, and those of other countries, I think it is likely that Britain and America will both make use of martial law. China has already been effectively using martial law, which it can do automatically. I think it is likely that the governments of Britain and the US will follow suit by using the 2004 Civil Contingencies Act and the Patriot Act, respectively. This will probably happen once the numbers of deaths from the virus rise above ten thousand. Both pieces of legislation have the power to be far more than a temporary measure. Both have also been strongly criticised by human rights groups. Here is a comment from a Guardian article on the UK Act:

Civil liberties groups expressed concerns that the act could be used in the future by a government with malign intent. Tony Bunyan, editor of Statewatch, described the powers as truly draconian. He said: "Cities could be sealed off, travel bans introduced, all phones cut off, and websites shut down. Demonstrations could be banned and the news media made subject to censorship. New offences against the state could be 'created' by government decree. "This is Britain's Patriot Act. At a stroke democracy could be replaced by totalitarianism."

The Patriot Act is just as scary, in the powers its gives to the executive. As this long Atlantic article states:

"For instance, the president can, with the flick of his pen, activate laws allowing him to shut down many kinds of electronic communications inside the United States or freeze Americans’ bank accounts. Other powers are available even without a declaration of emergency, including laws that allow the president to deploy troops inside the country to subdue domestic unrest."

Once the UK and the US are an official emergency, and with martial law in place, those in power might not want it to end. It is possible that they will repeatedly delay the resumption of a civil society once the virus has petered out, citing increasing spurious reasons. Because of this, after martial law is declared, we may not get democracy, habeas corpus, a free press, etc for a very long time. A tyrannical, undemocratic executive could be in power for years. To guess the likelihood of this happening, and the length and severity of it, we can look at the current leaders of the UK and the US, and their moral calibre. I'll leave it to you to work out that answer.

What can we do to prepare for this future, if it occurs? I've already talked about the value of preparing for the virus, and so I won't repeat it here. As for the economic and political upheaval, I don't know. There are many variables. What's more, most of us don't have many options when such changes occur, but forewarned is always forearmed. If we're mentally prepared to deal with this future, then we have a much better chance of getting through it.

As a final comment, here is a very good YouTube video on how close the US could already be to tyranny, according to the writer Timothy Snyder: