Covid-19 - Alarm fortnight and lung damage

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Over a month ago, in an earlier blog, I created a coronavirus timeline, based on the scientific evidence I had gathered up to that point. The timeline assumed that the coronavirus would spread at roughly the same rate through every country in which it had become established, or endemic. According to the timeline, here in the UK, the first half of March would be Anxiety fortnight, in which panic buying would begin, and people would start wearing masks. There would also be 384 deaths and 2,500 cases of infection by this weekend. As of this morning, we have 24 deaths and 1200 cases, but the numbers of dead have been doubling daily recently, and the numbers of infected roughly every two days, so the model is about a week too soon. The spreadsheet, interestingly, also predicted that the virus began in China in early November. Latest reports now back up this idea.

The spreadsheet also predicted panic buying, but it doesn't match everything that is happening here in the UK since people here haven't began wearing masks in large numbers. This is partly cultural, but mostly because our government has been telling the public that masks don't help. This is untrue scientifically, as several scientific studies show that wearing a mask, particularly a respirator, can greatly reduce the risk of contracting an aerosolised disease (such as Covid-19), particularly in a contained environment. This health and safety executive report details the benefits of wearing such masks. The advice also makes no sense practically, as the government is also saying how much nurses and doctors need masks. Encouraging the public to make their own masks out of cotton is better than the current government strategy.

The spreadsheet also predicts a terrible situation hitting every country eventually. Understandably, the peak numbers vary depending on the country's population. Here in the UK, we aren't going to hit 67 million infected as our population is only around 65 million. Instead, roughly 80% of people will probably be infected eventually, due to lack of immunity and the disease's infectiousness, as discussed in this report. This equates to roughly 52 million people. The same report also predicts that up to 8 million people, in the UK, will eventually end up in hospital. This fits fairly well to the numbers in the spreadsheet.

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UK government strategy

It seems clear that the UK government is stalling; it is deliberately delaying protective measures, such as closing schools, which other countries have brought in, purely to save money, protect business and cover up their own inadequate planning, both in the short term and the long term. As Chris Martenson has repeatedly said in his Peak Prosperity youtube videos, it didn't have to be this way. Our government, with its satellites and GCHQ and diplomatic channels, would have known about this virus by the end of December. They could have made epidemiological models and predicted how things would develop. I created a predictive model with some google searches and a spreadsheet at the beginning of February. The UK government should have had a far more detailed and accurate model by mid January. They could have then planned a response, including face-mask production, temporary quarantine hospitals, public information campaign, phased lockdown, community testing etc. Instead, we have stalling, delays, contradictory evidence, unscientific advice and flat-out lying.

The latest plan by our government to deal with the pandemic to isolate all elderly people for months. This is hare-brained. Firstly, it contradicts the government's earlier concerns that people would become 'fatigued' if they had to go into lockdown. Secondly, it is condemning the elderly to a mentally draining experience, which is cruel discrimination. Thirdly, it won't help everyone else in our country because if the virus is allowed to circulate rapidly through the working population, Covid-19 can cause long term lung damage even to people who survive it, according to this scientific report. It is not the flu; it is a dangerous, lethal and damaging plague. The UK needs to go into lockdown to protect everyone, not just the elderly.

I've given out advice in an earlier blog to help people deal with this epidemic. I'm not sure how much more I can help from this point on, but if I think of anything new and beneficial, I'll post it here.